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March 11, 2004

The Guilty Parties?

Was today's attack the effort of the usual suspects, ETA, or was it our friends, Al Qaida? An independent think-tank in Belgium is leaning toward the jihadists.

First, ETA generally warns Spanish authorities moments before launching their attacks in which civilians are likely to be harmed. This, obviously, was not the case on Thursday.

Second, ETA traditionally targets representatives of the government or the administration, such as policemen, the military, magistrates or even journalists who oppose them.

Third, ETA customarily selects "symbolic" targets, such as military barracks and administrative buildings. Although ETA's largest attack to date was in 1987 against a supermarket in Barcelona that killed 21 people, this was the exception rather than the norm.

Fourth, ETA always claims its attacks. Following any ETA bombing, ETA militants call in a claim to Spanish authorities. This failed to happen this time.

Fifth, ETA has never in the past carried out multiple attacks. According to some sources, at least 10 bombs were detonated almost simultaneously on Thursday.

On the other hand, these murderous attacks bear the traditional hallmark of al-Qaida: multiple bombs detonating a few seconds apart and programmed to cause the largest possible number of human casualties.

They also mention the lack of popular support for the Basque party in Spain - and intentionally blowing up innocent civilians is not the way to win the hearts and minds of those whose support you need (listen up, Palestinians).

If it does turn out to be Al Qaida, I am curious if this will increase Spanish sentiment for supporting the war on terror, of if it will instead increase popular discontent with the already embattled Aznar (90% of Spaniards polled opposed the war in Iraq).

Will they see these senseless deaths as a reason to destroy this global menace in our midsts, or will they cave in to fear of further retribution? The Moors brought Islam to Spain in centuries past - perhaps they'd like Al Qaida to do it again.

Update: Looks like Al Qaida is claiming responsibility. If that's the case, then, Spain, welcome to the other front-line of the war - may your head-in-the-sand population catch up to the sensibilities of your government.

Update Two: According to the Spanish daily, El Pais, they are also operating under the possibility that ETA is attempting to misdirect authorities. Possible, but I'm not sure how not claiming responsibility makes sense, unless the death count was more than they anticipated and maybe they've realized they've just made a Taliban-sized mistake.

Update Three: The e-mail letter claiming responsibility also has a warning for the United States:

"We announce the good news for the Muslims in the world that the strike of the black wind of death, the expected strike against America, is now at its final stage — 90 percent ready — and it is coming soon, by God's will," the claim said.

Allah must like George Bush, because if we have another catastrophic attack, I'm willing to bet the wartime President will be in for Round Two. (Hat tip to Colorado Conservative for the first info on this.)