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December 10, 2003

Freedom for Iraqi, But Not For Thee

The Bush administration has said it does not support independence for Taiwan, and Arthur Silber is pissed.

Let's be absolutely clear about this: the administration tells us that it is dedicated to the spread of "democracy" and freedom, and that it will wage war and spend billions of dollars -- money belonging to American citizens -- to "nation-build" in the Middle East.

But when it comes to speaking up for a long-time ally and friend -- and for a country which embodies freedom and liberty despite truly formidable odds -- the same administration will cower in fear before a despotic, dictatorial regime, a regime known far and wide for its human right abuses and its despicable record of crushing freedom. And not only will the administration cower like a miserable little rat, it will actively seek to placate and curry favor with tyrants, while putting the freedom, and the lives, of the Taiwanese at great and terrible risk.

While I was disappointed in the announcement, at the same time, I don't think comparing it to actions in the Middle East is necessarily accurate. Taiwan already has a considerable level of freedom and democratic rule, whereas Iraq did not. Taiwan's population is not living under duress and fear that at any given moment, they or a family member might vanish - the Iraqis did.

Bear with me, I am thinking through this aloud now. The status quo is such that Taiwan is, for most purposes, free, while China hobbles along toward Westernization, impeded by a bunch of old men clinging to power. Changing that in the short-term by endorsing Taiwanese independence runs the risk of (a) dramatically increasing barriers to the flow of Western principles into China via the influence of Taiwan or (b) ending freedom and democracy in China by forcing Chinese military action against the island.

I don't see us going to war against a nuclear power to protect Taiwan (principled suicide is suicide nonetheless). And, as Vodkapundit pointed out, China need not invade Taiwan - lobbing missiles will do the job just as well when the point is to teach a lesson and demand obedience. However, I have the hope that a variant on MAD policy will prevent China from following a course like that as well, given that we theoretically will defend Taiwan. So, the status quo seems a likely way to achieve the goal of Pax Americana (ooh, there's the neo-con in me) over time.

Unless, of course, Bush's latest words have given the Chinese the impression that we might not follow through on our commitment.

OK, so maybe it could get ugly in a hurry.